Growth plan for Stella & Chewy's, 2 Oct 2026
Scale spend. Hold CAC.
The plan protects one number, a target CAC of $10.56, while spend scales. Your range runs from $9.99 Crav'n Bac'n Bites to $31.08 Shredrs, and 214 Reviews on one page give creators something real to build on.
- Target CAC
- $10.56
- New ads a week at peak
- 20
- Creators live by week six
- 10
- Test spend, six weeks
- $24,000
Contents
10 chapters, then the gates and every number’s source.
01 The number
One number to protect: $10.56 CAC on a $9.99 to $31.08 range
The number to protect is a target CAC of $10.56. It is 0.6 of a $17.60 ceiling, built from a $22 average order, a 40% margin and one repeat order. Your 25% welcome offer cuts the first order, so I keep the cushion.
Protect
Target CAC: $10.56 on a first purchase
Ceiling = average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders): $22 × 40% × (1 + 1) = $17.60. Guard line = 0.6 × $17.60 = $10.56. Across the ranges: $4.19 to $103.52.
Three moves
- Kill losing ads early, one variable per test, so spend moves to winners.
- Report daily CAC against the $10.56 guard line and pause anything above it.
- Scale only concepts that hold CAC across Shredrs, Carnivore Crunch and cat pouches.
- Reviews shown on one product page
- 214
- Published
- Off your first order with the welcome offer
- 25%
- Published
- Saved on every order with subscribe & save
- 5%
- Published
02 Variety
Dogs and cats: two audiences behind one Stella & Chewy's cart
Each ad concept has to carry one reason to buy and one product: a Beef Carnivore Crunch at $14.99, Shredrs in broth at $31.08, or a cat pouch at $25.08. One variable changes per test, so a loser tells us exactly why it lost.
| Reason to buy | Proof you already have | Ads (proposed) |
|---|---|---|
| Meat-first recipes | 98% beef, nutrient-rich organs & bone | 7 |
| Cleaner recipes | Pea-free, lentil-free, and potato-free | 6 |
| 25% off first order | Get 25% Off Your First Order | 2 |
| Subscribe & save | Subscribe & save 5% on every order | 2 |
| Review count | 204 reviews with 5 stars. | 1 |
| Total | The ad concepts tab | 18 |
Each row is a reason to buy that the brand already has proof for. The count is how many of the ads carry it: a reason with a single ad is a bet, not a pattern, and the next batch of concepts moves toward the reasons that win.
03 Disturbances
Seven risks, from the 25% welcome offer to $49 free shipping
| Disturbance | Likelihood | Impact | Owner | Gate (proposed) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The 25% welcome offer thins the first order, so CAC has little room | High | High | Both | Weekly check: pause any concept whose first order loses money after the 25% discount |
| A $31.08 Shredrs order sits under the $49 free-shipping line | High | Med | Your team | Test a bundle ad aimed at $49; keep it only if CAC stays at or under $10.56 |
| Review depth is uneven: 214 Reviews on one page, 9 on another | Med | Med | Both | Lead creative with the 214-review products; cut a concept above $10.56 CAC after two weeks |
| Creator videos drift past your own wording on what the food does | Med | High | Both | Every video checked against the claims sheet before posting; zero off-sheet claims live |
| Event tracking misses subscribe-and-save orders, so CAC reads wrong | Med | High | Your team | Tracking spec signed off in Week 1; test spend waits until daily orders match the store |
| I have no pet food experience, so early hooks may miss | High | Med | Me | Hooks reviewed against your product copy in Week 1; any hook that fails the claims sheet is cut |
| Creators sign slower than two a week, so the ramp slips | Med | Med | Me | If fewer than two sign in a week, test spend holds at that week's level |
Scores are my read from outside the company, re-scored in week one with your data. Each risk has one owner and one gate that can be checked with a number, so nobody has to argue about whether it happened.
04 The ceiling
Ceiling $17.60: a $22 order, with 5% subscribe & save in play
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Average order | $22 (range $7.99–$76.68) | Assumption Range from the site product prices (Published); the midpoint is a guess |
| Gross margin | 40% (range 35–45%) | Assumption Replace in week one |
| Repeat orders after the first | 1 (range 0.5–2) | Assumption Replace with cohort data in week one |
| Margin per customer, all orders | $17.60 | Calculated Average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders) |
| Guard line for CAC | $10.56 | Calculated 0.6 × the margin per customer |
The math, with the assumed lines
Ceiling = average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders): $22 × 40% × (1 + 1) = $17.60. Guard line = 0.6 × $17.60 = $10.56. Across the ranges: $4.19 to $103.52.
Range across the assumptions: $4 to $104.
The $22 order, 40% margin and one repeat order are my guesses. The 25% welcome offer and 5% subscription saving are on your site. Week one replaces my guesses with your real numbers.
The ceiling is a range, not one number: the most a new customer can cost before shipping and packaging, which I do not have. Replace the guessed lines with yours and every figure below recalculates.
05 Test ramp
Six weeks of tests, $24,000, aimed at the 25% welcome offer
| Week | New ads × budget / ad (proposed) | Weekly test spend | Cumulative | Creators posting | CAC target (proposed) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 × $250 | $3,000 | $3,000 | 0 | $11 |
| 2 | 12 × $250 | $3,000 | $6,000 | 2 | $11 |
| 3 | 12–20 × $250 | $4,000 | $10,000 | 4 | $11 |
| 4 | 12–20 × $250 | $4,000 | $14,000 | 6 | $11 |
| 5 | 20 × $250 | $5,000 | $19,000 | 8 | $11 |
| 6 | 20 × $250 | $5,000 | $24,000 | 10 | $11 |
Week 1 and week 2 run 12 ads each at $250 per ad, $3,000 a week. Weeks 3 and 4 run 12–20 ads, $4,000 each. Weeks 5 and 6 run 20 ads, $5,000 each. Total tests: $24,000, all Proposed. Losers die early; winners get the money.
The math. Week 1: 12 × $250 = $3,000; Week 2: 12 × $250 = $3,000; Week 3: 16 × $250 = $4,000; Week 4: 16 × $250 = $4,000; Week 5: 20 × $250 = $5,000; Week 6: 20 × $250 = $5,000. Total $24,000 (96 ads × $250). A range such as 12–20 counts as its midpoint.
Weeks one and two test what the brand already has, rewritten per reason to buy. From week three, creator videos enter paid only after they beat their own account median. A range of new ads counts as its midpoint in the spend column.
06 Volume
More concepts, more winners: Bac'n Bites to Shredrs
At 20 concepts, 2 winners add $18,000 monthly. At 80 concepts, 8 winners add $72,000. Assumption: hit rate and spend per winner. Your dog and cat lines give plenty of concepts to test.
| Concepts tested / month | Hit rate (assumed) | New winners / month | Spend each winner holds (assumed) | Added spend at target CAC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 10% | 2 | $300 / day | $18,000 / month |
| 40 | 10% | 4 | $300 / day | $36,000 / month |
| 60 | 10% | 6 | $300 / day | $54,000 / month |
| 80 | 10% | 8 | $300 / day | $72,000 / month |
The math. 20 concepts × 10% = 2 winners × $300 × 30 days = $18,000 a month; 40 concepts × 10% = 4 winners × $300 × 30 days = $36,000 a month; 60 concepts × 10% = 6 winners × $300 × 30 days = $54,000 a month; 80 concepts × 10% = 8 winners × $300 × 30 days = $72,000 a month.
The hit rate and the spend each winner holds are placeholders. The first thirty days of tests replace them with real numbers, and the table is recalculated the same day.
07 Allocation
Where the $100,000 goes across dog and cat
- Meta tests: dog treats, Shredrs and cat pouches
- $45,000
- 45%
- Creator pay and product for the first ten creators
- $25,000
- 25%
- Scaling winners that hold the $10.56 target
- $20,000
- 20%
- Landing pages and tracking fixes
- $10,000
- 10%
Percentages of the $100,000 Proposed budget; testing leads because the ramp spends $24,000 before any winner is scaled.
The math. 45% × $100,000 = $45,000; 25% × $100,000 = $25,000; 20% × $100,000 = $20,000; 10% × $100,000 = $10,000. Sum 100% = $100,000.
This split is a proposal. It moves toward scaling as winners prove out, and toward testing when fatigue shows.
08 Channels
Meta opens first; 214 Reviews feed the other four channels
| Channel | Open when (proposed) | Why wait |
|---|---|---|
| Meta | Week 1, with 12 ads | Fastest read on which hooks hold CAC at $10.56 for dog and cat owners. |
| TikTok | Once creators are live and videos hold CAC | Mealtime videos with Shredrs in broth suit short, native video. |
| YouTube Shorts | After Meta winners hold CAC for two weeks | Reuses creator video; ingredient stories like 98% beef need seconds to land. |
| Once the 25% welcome offer is tracked end to end | Subscribe & save 5% needs a follow-up to win the second order. | |
| Google search | After tracking is signed off | Captures product searches from buyers the creators have warmed up. |
A channel opens when its condition is true, not when the calendar says so. Until then the budget stays where the CAC is earned.
09 Payback
Payback: a 25% welcome offer makes the first order thin
Payback is the real constraint. At CAC $5, the first order pays back with $12.60 left. At $10, it takes the repeat order, with $7.60 left. At $20 or $25 it never pays back, −$2.40 and −$7.40 left, so I stop. Your 25% welcome offer makes that line tighter.
Cumulative margin per customer, order by order, before CAC: $8.80, $17.60.
| CAC (scenario) | First-order margin | Year-one margin | Left after CAC | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $5 | $8.80 | $17.60 | $12.60 | First order |
| $10 | $8.80 | $17.60 | $7.60 | After repeat orders |
| $20 | $8.80 | $17.60 | −$2.40 | Never: stop |
| $25 | $8.80 | $17.60 | −$7.40 | Never: stop |
The math. CAC $5: $17.60 − $5 = $12.60 left; pays back: First order; CAC $10: $17.60 − $10 = $7.60 left; pays back: After repeat orders; CAC $20: $17.60 − $20 = −$2.40 left; pays back: Never: stop; CAC $25: $17.60 − $25 = −$7.40 left; pays back: Never: stop.
Read each row left to right: the margin of the first purchase, the margin over the whole horizon, what is left after CAC, and the purchase on which the CAC is earned back. A scenario that never pays back is a stop, not a test.
10 Scope
Scope: ads and creators, not the formulas behind the bowl
Covers
- Meta creative testing across the dog and cat lines
- Creator sourcing, briefs and pay for the first ten
- Landing page tests built around your products
- Daily CAC, weekly learnings, monthly cohort payback
Doesn’t
- Formulas, sourcing, or any health claim beyond your own wording
- Retail and store distribution
- Event tracking build: I spec it, your team ships it
- Customer service and fulfillment, including shipping
What this plan covers is what I can change inside the ad account and the creator program. Everything outside it is named on the right so nobody assumes it is handled.
Gates, written before spend, so stopping isn’t a negotiation.
| Day | Keep going if (proposed) | Stop or change if |
|---|---|---|
| Day 14 | Two creators live, 12 ads tested, tracking matches store orders, CAC read daily. | Tracking can't match store orders, or no creator has signed. |
| Day 30 | Ten creators on track and at least one concept at or under $10.56 CAC. | No concept under $17.60 after $14,000 of tests. |
| Day 60 | Winners scaled with CAC at or under $10.56 for two straight weeks. | CAC above $17.60 for two straight weeks. |
| Day 90 | Cohort payback inside the repeat order from the ceiling, with spend rising toward $100,000. | Payback never reached at current CAC. |
Each gate is checked on its day with the numbers in the daily and weekly reports. If the stop condition is true, the spend stops and nothing renews until we talk.
What exists, what’s missing, and the order that’s forced.
| Piece | Exists today | Missing | Forced order |
|---|---|---|---|
| claims sheet | Your product copy, such as 98% beef on Carnivore Crunch | Approved lines for creators to use | 1st |
| creative | Dog and cat lines, $9.99 to $31.08 | A hook library per product | 1st |
| creators | A 214-review page creators can point to | Ten creators matched to dog and cat owners | 2nd |
| landing pages | A 25% welcome offer and 5% subscribe & save | Pages matched to each ad concept | 2nd |
| reporting | Subscribe & save 5% on every order | Daily CAC and event tracking | Week 1 |
The order is forced on purpose: creative and creators come first because they are what moves CAC, and everything else waits for that data.
Every number, and where it came from.
| Figure | Where it came from | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 214 Reviews shown on one product page | https://www.stellaandchewys.com/products/beef-carnivore-crunch | Fact |
| 25% Off your first order with the welcome offer | https://www.stellaandchewys.com/ | Fact |
| 5% Saved on every order with subscribe & save | https://www.stellaandchewys.com/blogs/articles/petsmart-launch | Fact |
| Product prices $7.99–$76.68 | product prices in the site product data (159 products), read 2026-10-02 | Fact |
| $22 average order · 40% margin · 1 repeat order | Placeholders, replaced in week one | Assumed |
| $10.56 target CAC | 0.6 of the $17.60 margin per customer | Calculated |
| $17.60 margin per customer | Price × (margin − discount), summed over the orders | Calculated |
| $24,000 of tests (96 ads × $250) | Danilo’s plan, matches Month one | Calculated |
| 0→10 creators in 6 weeks · 7 videos per creator a week | Danilo’s plan, matches Month one and the Creator engine | Proposed |
| $100,000 first budget split 45% / 25% / 20% / 10% | Danilo’s plan, re-set with the team in week one | Calculated |
| 10% hit rate · $300 a day per winner | Placeholders, replaced by the first 30 days of tests | Assumed |
| 303 creator videos a month at 10 creators | 10 creators × 7 videos a week × 52 ÷ 12 | Calculated |
| $5.74 per 1,000 views against a $1 target | Creator cost over the views the assumptions give | Calculated |
| $1,000 base pay · $50 bonus past 100,000 views | Danilo’s plan | Proposed |
| 1,500 median views · 4% breakout (10×) · 0.5% viral (750,000) | Placeholders, replaced by the first month of posts | Assumed |
| Pay bands $300–$600, $500–$1,000, $800–$1,500 | Danilo’s plan | Proposed |
Every figure on this page is listed here with where it came from. Fact means read on the site. Assumed and Proposed are Danilo’s own numbers, to be replaced in week one. Calculated is plain arithmetic on those, with the formula shown next to it.
Month one is where it starts.
Week one: I read your product copy, write the claims sheet, brief the first two creators on Carnivore Crunch and cat pouches, and set up daily CAC reporting. The first 12 ads go live against the $10.56 guard line.
